F
Fox Corporation
FOXA · Communication Services
Q2 FY2026
Earning ended Dec 31, 2025Report generated Mar 17, 2026
Fox Owns the Toll Bridge While the Highway Slowly Narrows
The market is pricing Fox as a pure cable-decline story, but Tubi — now the most-watched free streaming service in America by viewing hours and already EBITDA-positive — is embedded inside a 'dying cable company' and valued at essentially nothing, while Fox News scatter pricing surging tells you the advertiser desertion narrative is more complicated than the bear case assumes.
Flowly Score
Apr 16 Close
+94%$64.52
Fair Value
$125.00
61
Averageat $64.52
Business Strength6/10
Fox News is a genuine counter-positioned fortress with affiliate fee leverage that cable operators cannot escape, but the infrastructure monetizing that moat — the cable bundle — is structurally deteriorating, and governance red flags from the dual-class structure and Dominion episode introduce a discount that pure business quality wouldn't warrant.
Financial Resilience7/10
Five consecutive years of OCF outpacing net income is the cleanest possible signal of earnings quality, and the CapEx-light model means this cash is genuinely distributable; the leverage load is real but manageable for a business with this much pricing power on renewal negotiations.
Growth & Trajectory5/10
Revenue growth is modest and structurally capped by cord-cutting, but Tubi at 27% engagement growth and its second consecutive EBITDA-positive quarter is the most underappreciated trajectory in this story — the question is whether it scales fast enough to replace what the bundle is losing.
Valuation8/10at $57.39
An FCF yield this wide on a business with a durable near-term moat, an AVOD platform the market values at effectively zero, and a buyback engine removing shares at an aggressive clip represents genuine margin of safety — the market is applying a structural-collapse discount to a business with more durability than that label implies.
Risk4/10
The risk profile is unusually lumpy: the business is domestically concentrated, the 2033 NFL rights renewal is a binary event where technology platforms can outbid Fox by treating rights as customer acquisition cost rather than content expense, and dual-class governance means minority shareholders absorb the consequences of family succession politics they cannot influence.
The investment case is a tension between two truths that are both right simultaneously: Fox is a melting-ice-cube cable business and it is cheap enough that the melting is already more than priced in. The toll-road economics of Fox News affiliate fees have proven remarkably durable through years of cord-cutting — cable operators simply cannot drop it without triggering subscriber revolt — and the FCF generation has been consistent enough that aggressive buybacks are compounding per-share value even as the subscriber base contracts. You are getting paid to wait on a business that the consensus has written off prematurely. The trajectory question turns entirely on Tubi's scaling speed relative to affiliate fee erosion. The recent earnings data is actually encouraging here: Tubi achieving EBITDA profitability while growing engagement at rates that no legacy media platform can match, combined with Fox One building a direct streaming relationship with news-loyal viewers who engage twice as frequently as general audiences, suggests the transition vehicle is further along than the cable-company valuation multiple implies. The FIFA World Cup in summer and the next political cycle provide near-term advertising catalysts that will further surface Tubi's revenue scale to analysts still modeling it as a rounding error. The single most consequential risk is specific and time-stamped: the NFL broadcast rights renewal at the end of the current deal. This is not a cyclical or manageable risk — it is a potential permanent step-down in Fox's competitive position. Technology platforms with nine-figure customer acquisition budgets and streaming infrastructure already built can price NFL rights as marketing spend, structurally outbidding any company that must clear a content cost hurdle rate. If Fox loses NFL broadcast rights in 2033, no amount of Tubi growth offsets the loss of the only content category still reliably aggregating tens of millions of simultaneous viewers — and with it, the premium advertising rates that live sports uniquely command.