New quarterly report expected Apr 21, 2026. Report will refresh after results.
I
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBKR · Financial Services
Q4 FY2025
Earning ended Dec 31, 2025Report generated Mar 10, 2026
The World's Best Toll Road Priced Like Everyone Knows It
The market treats IBKR as a rate-cycle trade to be timed around Fed meetings, missing that what's actually happening is a technology platform quietly taking structural share from every regional broker on earth that lacks the clearing infrastructure to compete globally. The second-order insight is that client performance data — hedge funds running nearly eleven hundred basis points above market — is the most powerful organic marketing engine in the industry, and it compounds silently.
Flowly Score
Apr 16 Close
-18%$79.38
Fair Value
$65.00
58
Averageat $79.38
Business Strength8/10
A vertically integrated self-clearing machine with genuine scale economies and process power baked over five decades — the automation DNA is institutional, not accidental. The rate cyclicality is a real overlay, but the underlying transaction moat is structural and widening as volume compounds through already-built infrastructure.
Financial Resilience8/10
Cash generation reliably and substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural feature of the brokerage model, not a one-time gift — and CapEx is nearly irrelevant to the economics of a software-and-relationships business. The dramatic debt reduction to near-zero at the corporate level removes the one financial lever that could have created stress.
Growth & Trajectory8/10
Over a million net new accounts in a single year, client equity up dramatically, commission revenues at record levels even as the rate tailwind moderates — this is platform momentum, not statistical noise. The bank charter, European expansion, and prediction markets optionality are additive vectors on top of an already-compounding account acquisition engine.
Valuation2/10at $67.49
The stock is trading above the stated fair value estimate, the P/E sits near the upper end of its recent historical range, and a meaningful portion of the earnings step-change was rate-cycle windfall that is now fading — leaving normalized earnings power at a more modest growth rate than the recent income statement suggests. The market is pricing the platform optimistically with limited margin of safety.
Risk5/10
The rate sensitivity is not a thesis risk but an earnings timing risk — NII can compress without any deterioration in competitive position, creating a gap between platform strength and reported profitability that could last years. The UP-C governance structure and unresolved succession represent a separate category of structural risk that doesn't show up in any financial model.
This is a genuinely excellent business trading at a price that reflects that fact. The moat sources — self-clearing infrastructure, process power accumulated across five decades, counter-positioning against PFOF-dependent competitors — are durable and widening, not eroding. The founder's continued economic dominance creates alignment that most public companies cannot manufacture. The problem for prospective buyers is that the stock has re-rated from crisis-level multiples to premium ones, and at current prices the margin of safety is thin: you need the account growth to persist, the rate environment to be cooperative, and the international expansion to convert into earnings — all simultaneously — just to earn a fair return. The platform is heading in a structurally positive direction regardless of the rate cycle. The bank charter unlocks mutual fund and ETF custody — a category currently walled off to broker-dealers — which would dramatically expand the addressable institutional and RIA market. European expansion, prediction markets tied to real-world commodity contracts, and AI-powered client tools are not vaporware; they are sequenced bets from a management team with a five-decade track record of building things that work. The non-US revenue trajectory tells the international story clearly: it is growing consistently and represents an expanding share of the business. The single biggest risk is the interest rate path colliding with the current valuation. IBKR earns meaningfully on client cash float, and a sustained cutting cycle compresses net interest income without any underlying deterioration in accounts, volumes, or competitive position — creating the optical illusion of a deteriorating business in what is actually a strengthening one. At a full valuation multiple, that NII compression creates real downside in the stock even if the thesis is entirely intact, because the earnings multiple was set against a rate environment that no longer exists. That mismatch between platform trajectory and near-term reported earnings is the most concrete risk to sitting in this position today.